Weather Drives Week 4 Betting Picks: Rain and Wind Shape Saturday Slate
The short version
- Analyst Vaughn Dalzell went 8-1 in Week 3 and builds his Week 4 card around Nor'Easter weather effects.
- Plays include unders on quarterback props for Grunkemayer, McKenzie, Washington and Iamaleava.
- Rushing overs at 176.5 (James Madison) and 175.5 (Old Dominion) are backed amid 21 mph gusts.
- USC's Jayden Maiava over 263.5 passing yards is the pick in the Oregon-USC showdown.
- LSU first-quarter bets at -2.5 and a team total of at least seven points headline Texas A&M-LSU.
Vaughn Dalzell of NBC Sports leans on unders and rushing overs across Week 4, with a Nor'Easter expected to disrupt several Saturday college football games.
NBC Sports betting analyst Vaughn Dalzell released his picks for Week 4 of the college football season, leaning heavily on weather-driven plays as a Nor'Easter moves up the East Coast. Coming off an 8-1 record in Week 3 and a 1-2 result on Thursday night, Dalzell built his card around games where rain and strong winds could suppress scoring. Odds cited in his analysis come from DraftKings.
The Saturday opener he targets is Virginia Tech, a 14-point favorite on the road at Boston College, with a total of 45.5. Dalzell expects steady rain and winds above 20 mph in Chestnut Hill, and notes the total has already fallen from 53.5. His play is the first-quarter under on 9.5 points, hoping for one score or fewer in the opening frame.
Quarterback props are also in play in that game. Ethan Grunkemayer of Virginia Tech has cleared 224 passing yards in each of his three games, but Dalzell is taking the under on his 215.5-yard line. On the Boston College side, Mason McKenzie has topped 174 yards in all three contests, and Dalzell likes the under on his 165.5-yard prop as well.
UCLA visits Maryland as a 1.5-point favorite with a total that climbed from an opening 51.5 to 56.5. Dalzell is buying back on that line movement with an under on 56.5, citing winds around 16-17 mph and a 53 percent chance of rain. He also backs unders on both starting quarterbacks: Malik Washington at 289.5 passing yards and Nico Iamaleava at 194.5. Iamaleava faces a Terrapins defense that PFF grades sixth in pressure rate, though his season-high 276-yard outing came last week against Purdue.
A conference clash between James Madison and Old Dominion rounds out the weather plays. The Dukes are 6.5-point favorites on the road, the total sits at 44.5, and wind gusts above 21 mph are forecast. With James Madison averaging 172.0 rushing yards per game and Old Dominion 151.5, Dalzell is taking overs on both team rushing totals, set at 176.5 for the Dukes and 175.5 for the Monarchs.
The biggest game of the day features No. 20 Oregon traveling to No. 12 USC as a 3-point favorite, with the spread having moved from Oregon +1.5. Rather than betting the side or the 61.5 total, Dalzell targets Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava over 263.5 passing yards. Maiava threw for 306 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions on 43 attempts at Oregon last season, a 42-27 Ducks win that stood 28-21 midway through the third quarter.
Oregon's pass defense has shown vulnerability, surrendering 317 yards to Oklahoma State and 181 yards and three scores to Boise State. PFF grades the Ducks 44th nationally in coverage, though that figure follows an 84-0 win over FCS Portland State. Dalzell points to Trent Mosley, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and King Miller as targets who make the Maiava over appealing.
The nightcap brings Texas A&M to LSU, where the Tigers are 8.5-point favorites with a total of 51.5. Dalzell describes Lane Kiffin as one of the nation's best first-quarter coaches and expects a fast LSU start following the Tigers' slow beginning at Ole Miss. His picks are LSU to cover the first quarter at -2.5, priced at -122, and the Tigers' first-quarter team total to score at least seven points at -185.
Texas A&M enters off a 31-21 home loss to Kentucky in which the Aggies were shut out in the first quarter. Last season's meeting went to A&M, 49-25, but Dalzell views this year's Aggies as a different team facing a high-pressure road environment at Death Valley.
Games to watch
