Guardians Host White Sox Saturday to Open ALDS in Cleveland

Cleveland won the AL Central at 85-77 with a first-round bye, while 84-78 Chicago swept Houston; a ClutchPoints preview predicts the White Sox will take the ALDS in four games.

The Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox on Saturday at Progressive Field to begin their American League Division Series. The clubs finished one game apart in the AL Central this season, and the winner advances to the American League Championship Series.

Cleveland claimed the division at 85-77 and earned a first-round bye, having overtaken Chicago in September to win it. The White Sox finished 84-78, took the Wild Card route instead, and swept the Houston Astros to reach this round.

The sweep in Houston was emphatic. Chicago scored 13 runs there against an 81-win club and never trailed at any point against the Astros, a stretch of control the analysis expects Cleveland to interrupt in Game 1.

The season series leaned Chicago's way too, with the White Sox taking seven of the 13 meetings between the division rivals. Taken together, the analysis sees a division series with no obvious favorite.

Cleveland's case rests on a rotation refreshed by the bye and the late-season surge that delivered the division, a push that also demonstrated an ability to handle adversity. Chicago's rests on an offense that kept scoring in Houston and the confidence of a team that just swept its way into this round.

The ClutchPoints preview, syndicated by Yahoo Sports, predicts three outcomes for the series. The first has Guardians rookie left-hander Parker Messick striking out 10 and winning Game 1 in his postseason debut. Messick made four starts against the White Sox this season, going 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA, 29 strikeouts and five walks across 25 2/3 innings, and he won his two most recent outings against them. The pick is grounded in that body of work rather than a simple rested-pitching-versus-hot-hitting assumption.

The second prediction targets White Sox shortstop Colson Montgomery, picked to hit two home runs in the series with at least one coming at Rate Field. Montgomery hit 31 home runs in the regular season against 227 strikeouts, slumped to a .065 average over his final 19 games, then homered in his playoff debut against the Astros. The forecast counts on his power surfacing against mistakes rather than a complete escape from the slump.

The final prediction covers the series outcome: Chicago drops Game 1, wins Game 2 against Gavin Williams, and closes out the series with wins at Rate Field to advance in four games. The projection leans on a 48-33 home record against 36-45 on the road for the White Sox. It also acknowledges Cleveland's 44-37 road mark, which suggests the Guardians can win away from Progressive Field.

In that scenario, Messick's Game 1 win would mark the peak of a short Cleveland stay, while the White Sox would move on to the ALCS. Chicago's home games in the series come at Rate Field, where the prediction has the White Sox closing the Guardians out.