Cubs on Verge of Clinching Wild Card as Boston Weather Threatens Red Sox Series
The short version
- Cubs, Padres and Phillies are tied at 87-70 for the top NL Wild Card; Cubs hold the tiebreaker in all tie scenarios.
- Cubs clinch a playoff spot with a win over Miami Wednesday or a Diamondbacks loss.
- Cubs' odds of the No. 4 seed fell from 60 percent to 45 percent; a 3-2 finish keeps hosting chances at 60 percent or better.
- MLB is planning a Cubs-Red Sox doubleheader Friday at Fenway Park ahead of expected weekend rain in Boston.
- A Monday makeup date is possible if games are lost to weather.
Chicago can lock up a playoff spot Wednesday, while MLB weighs a Friday doubleheader at Fenway Park ahead of a stormy weekend forecast.
Five games remain in the 2026 MLB regular season, and the Cubs, Padres and Phillies are all tied at 87-70 for the top National League Wild Card spot. Chicago holds the tiebreaker over both clubs in two-team and three-team scenarios, meaning a three-way tie at season's end would send the Cubs to the No. 4 seed with a home Wild Card Series against Philadelphia.
The Diamondbacks sit at 83-74, four games back, with an elimination number of 1 against the Cubs. A Chicago win over the Marlins on Wednesday, or an Arizona loss to the Rockies, would clinch a Wild Card berth. According to odds updated through Tuesday's games, the Cubs' chances of securing the top Wild Card spot have dropped from 60 percent to 45 percent, though they still control their own path by winning out. Even with no further wins, their odds of reaching the postseason sit at 94 percent as the No. 6 seed.
Meanwhile, the Cubs' weekend series at Fenway Park against the Red Sox, set to begin Friday at 6:10 p.m. CT, faces a serious weather threat. Forecasts call for deteriorating conditions in Boston beginning Saturday evening, with rain expected through Sunday, and MLB has no plans to relocate the series.
According to reports, the league is planning a Cubs-Red Sox doubleheader on Friday to stay ahead of the storm, with the remaining game potentially shifted to Saturday, when the scheduled 7:15 p.m. start could be moved earlier. Playing games on Monday, the day between the scheduled end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs, remains a fallback option. The Cubs would need to complete all 162 games if the outcomes affect Padres or Phillies seeding.
