ESPN Predictor Projects Ohio State at 11-1 After Illinois Win
The short version
- Ohio State is 3-1 after beating Illinois 42-19 in its Big Ten opener on Sept. 26.
- ESPN's Matchup Predictor favors the Buckeyes in all eight remaining games, projecting an 11-1 finish.
- The closest remaining game is Oct. 17 at Indiana, where Ohio State carries a 54.3% win probability.
- The Nov. 7 home game against Oregon saw the biggest drop, from 83.3% to 77.8%, while Maryland rose to 98.0%.
- The regular season ends Nov. 28 against Michigan in Columbus, with Ohio State at 88.5%.
ESPN's Matchup Predictor favors Ohio State in all eight remaining games after the Week 4 win over Illinois, with the Oct. 17 trip to Indiana the closest call.
ESPN's college football Matchup Predictor has refreshed its numbers for Ohio State after Week 4, and the model still expects the Buckeyes to win out. The updated projections list Ohio State as the favorite in all eight remaining regular-season games. Following the latest slate, the model trimmed the Buckeyes' odds in five of those games and raised them in three.
The revision comes after Ohio State opened Big Ten play with a 42-19 victory over Illinois on Sept. 26 at Ohio Stadium. The Buckeyes are 3-1 overall, having beaten Ball State 56-3 on Sept. 5 and Kent State 59-3 on Sept. 19, both in Columbus. The only loss came Sept. 12 at Texas, 24-23, in a game the model had given the Longhorns a 59.9% chance to win.
Up next is a road trip to Iowa on Oct. 3 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. ESPN puts Ohio State's win probability at 82.9%, down slightly from 84.5% in the previous release. The Buckeyes lead the all-time series with the Hawkeyes 48-15-3.
Maryland visits Ohio Stadium on Oct. 10 in the game the model views as the safest left on the schedule. Ohio State's win probability there rose to 98.0% from 95.6%, and the Buckeyes have won all nine previous meetings with the Terrapins.
The narrowest margin belongs to the Oct. 17 trip to Indiana at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. ESPN lists the Buckeyes at 54.3%, nearly flat compared with 54.6% a week earlier. Ohio State leads that series 80-13-5.
October ends far from home with an Oct. 31 game at USC in the Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles. The predictor moved Ohio State up to 77.9% from 77.2%, though the Trojans still lead the all-time series 13-10-1.
The largest drop on the board involves Oregon, which comes to Columbus on Nov. 7. Ohio State's win probability fell from 83.3% to 77.8% in that matchup, a series the Buckeyes lead 10-2. Northwestern follows at home on Nov. 14 at 91.0%, down from 93.0%, with Ohio State ahead 66-14-1 all time.
The final road game comes Nov. 21 at Nebraska's Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, where the Buckeyes carry a 75.9% win probability after previously sitting at 80.3%. Ohio State leads the all-time series with the Cornhuskers 10-1.
Michigan closes the regular season on Nov. 28 in Columbus, and ESPN nudged Ohio State up to 88.5% from 86.8% for that game. Michigan leads the series 62-52-6. If every projection holds, the Buckeyes would finish 11-1, with the defeat at Texas as the only loss.
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