Stats Put Genoa's Bijlow Top of Serie A Goalkeeper Underperformance List

Post-shot expected goal data after five Serie A rounds places Genoa's Justin Bijlow atop the list of goalkeepers who have conceded more than the numbers say they should.

Five rounds into the new Serie A season, the numbers have already identified the goalkeepers who are conceding more than the quality of the shots against them warrants. According to an analysis published by Yahoo Sports, Genoa's Justin Bijlow tops that underperformance list, ahead of Monza's Demba Thiam, Skorupski, Fiorentina's David de Gea and Josep Martinez.

The ranking is based on a metric written as PSxG-GA. It estimates the danger of every shot on target — where it was taken from, how hard it was struck and where the save had to be made — and subtracts the goals a keeper actually allowed, producing a figure for goals prevented. A negative result means a keeper has let in more than he should have, and that is what unites the five names here.

Bijlow has conceded three goals more than expected, the worst mark in the division. Genoa occupy second-from-bottom place for reasons that go beyond a blunt attack and careless defending: their keeper has faced 23 shots on target and let 10 of them past, against an xGOT of just seven. The 1-1 draw with Frosinone was the only match in which he posted a positive number.

Thiam sits second at plus-2.21 despite playing only three matches. He conceded seven goals from 4.79 xGOT on just 11 shots, with a heavy error on Kamara's goal against Udinese doing particular damage to the figure. The signing of Tornqvist has since made him Monza's backup, and Juric left him on the bench even after the sale of Pizzignacco.

Skorupski has appeared in four of the five rounds so far and has allowed five goals from 2.82 xGOT, a gap of 2.18 goals above expectation. His mistake on Samardzic's goal against Atalanta was especially costly, and his most recent performances have not convinced. The competition with Pessina for the starting job is now described as wide open.

De Gea's plus-2.17 reflects a difficult start at Fiorentina. Seven of the 12 goals he has conceded came in the opening defeats against Roma and Frosinone, and a poor attempt on Hainaut's shot against Venezia added further damage. A strong display against Napoli kept him away from the very top of the list. Overall, he has faced 26 shots on target and 9.83 xGOT.

Josep Martinez rounds out the top five at plus-1.99, having allowed eight goals from 6.01 xGOT and 18 shots on target. A keeper who mixes spectacular saves with basic errors, as his Champions League performances have also shown, he has underperformed in every match that offered a genuine test. His clean sheet against Cagliari carries no weight in the ranking, since Cagliari failed to register a single shot on target.

One more case sits just outside the list. Semuel Pizzignacco played only Monza's opening match of the season before joining Carrarese on loan, but in those 90 minutes against Inter he conceded four goals from 1.55 xGOT and five shots, with at least one of the efforts judged saveable. His plus-2.45 would place him second among all Serie A keepers.

With five matchdays gone, the sample remains small and any conclusions preliminary. Even so, the early season has already delivered both outstanding stops and costly errors, and the coming rounds will show whether these figures were an anomaly or the start of a pattern.