Week 5 College Football Odds: Handicapper Targets Three Early Plays

A Yahoo Sports handicapper sees value on the under in Clemson-Miami, the over in Navy-Air Force and North Carolina catching 21.5 points against Notre Dame.

Week 5 of the college football season has produced three lines that a Yahoo Sports handicapper believes are mispriced, and he has published early recommendations for each: the under when No. 4 Miami visits Clemson, the over when Navy travels to Air Force, and the points with North Carolina against No. 3 Notre Dame.

Miami arrives at Clemson for a night road game as a 16.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5. The Hurricanes are 4-0 and ranked fourth in the country, allowing nine points per game. Quarterback Darian Mensah has completed 88.7% of his passes and, according to the analysis, is the first FBS passer in 30 years with more touchdown throws than incompletions through four games.

The case for the under rests on Miami's early schedule, which featured Stanford, Florida A&M, Wake Forest and Central Michigan — none of them defensive equals for Clemson. The Tigers are averaging 21 points per game and are still recovering from a 51-10 season-opening loss at LSU, the worst defeat of Dabo Swinney's coaching career. With true freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds at the controls, Clemson has converted only 15 of 55 third downs, pushing coordinator Chad Morris toward the run game, where Gideon Davidson rushed 22 times for 159 yards at Cal.

That run-heavy approach, with long drives and frequent punts rather than a shootout, drives the recommendation of under 49.5 at -102. The last two Miami-Clemson meetings produced 50 and 48 points, and the handicapper's model projects 47.1, with Clemson's offense expected to struggle to sustain drives against Miami's defense.

The service academy matchup carries a very different recommendation. Air Force is a 3.5-point home favorite over Navy with a total of 46.5, a number the analyst argues reflects an outdated version of the rivalry. From 2021 through 2023 the games produced just 26, 23 and 23 points, but the 2024 meeting reached 41 and last season's hit 65 as both defenses declined.

The scoring trends have continued this fall. Air Force's three games have combined for 34, 70 and 69 points, while Navy's have produced 57, 68 and 44, including 38 points allowed to Florida Atlantic. Falcons quarterback Liam Szarka ran 33 times for 171 yards at Nevada, and Navy has kept its offense moving regardless of quarterback availability — Braxton Woodson rushed for 200 yards in the opener before an ankle sprain, and Jackson Gutierrez carried 34 times at UAB. With a model projection of 51.4, the pick is over 46.5 at -110.

Notre Dame visits North Carolina as a 21.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5. The third-ranked Fighting Irish are 4-0, conceding only 8.2 points per game, and quarterback CJ Carr has thrown for 963 yards after Notre Dame went to Purdue and won by 39.

Even so, the selection is North Carolina plus 21.5 at -110. The Tar Heels are allowing 13.7 points per game, beat TCU 15-10 in Dublin and led Clemson 14-3 before losing late. Coach Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare and fields a physical defense the analyst says can shorten the game. His model still favors Notre Dame, but by 20.4 points — short of the three-touchdown spread, meaning the Irish could win comfortably and still fail to cover.