Astros' postseason math: Division title or wild card chase with five games left
The short version
- Astros and Rangers are both 78-79 with five games left; Houston holds the tiebreaker.
- Houston finishes with one game vs. Seattle and four at the Athletics.
- Astros trail the White Sox by three games for the final AL wild card spot and hold that tiebreaker too.
- A 2-3 finish or worse knocks Houston out of wild card contention.
- Blue Jays and Orioles also trail Chicago in the wild card race.
Houston sits even with Texas in the AL West and three games behind the White Sox for the final AL wild card spot with five games to play.
The Houston Astros control two paths to the postseason with five games remaining. They moved to 78-79 with a 7-0 win over the Seattle Mariners, pulling even with the Texas Rangers, who lost to the New York Mets. Because Houston holds the tiebreaker, finishing with a record at least equal to Texas would secure the AL West title.
The Rangers close with two more games against the Mets and a three-game road series at the Minnesota Twins. Houston has one game left against Seattle followed by a four-game road series with the Athletics. Both clubs face opponents that are under .500 and already eliminated from playoff contention.
If Houston cannot overtake Texas, the fallback is the final AL wild card spot, where the Chicago White Sox lead the Astros by three games. The White Sox finish with two games against the Kansas City Royals and three against the Colorado Rockies. Houston holds the tiebreaker over Chicago as well, so matching the White Sox's record would be enough.
The arithmetic narrows Houston's margin considerably. Going 4-1 the rest of the way could bring a wild card berth if Chicago finishes 1-4 or worse, while a 3-2 finish would require the White Sox to go 0-5. A 2-3 finish or worse would eliminate the Astros from catching Chicago, leaving their only hope that Texas collapses in kind.
The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles are also in the mix for the final wild card, sitting four and five games behind the White Sox respectively.
