Michigan Out of AP Poll After Last-Play Loss to Iowa; Playoff Odds Slide to 6.2%
The short version
- Iowa beat Michigan 20-19 at Michigan Stadium on Hank Brown's 16-yard TD pass to Reece Vander Zee on the final play; Iowa is 4-0, Michigan 3-1 (0-1 Big Ten).
- ESPN's Football Power Index gives Michigan a 6.2% chance at the College Football Playoff, below 1% for both the Big Ten and national titles.
- Michigan fell from No. 18 to unranked in the AP Top 25 and held at No. 24 in the Coaches Poll; Iowa rose to No. 14.
- Michigan opened the season with a 13-12 win over Western Michigan of the MAC.
- Remaining schedule includes No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Indiana, No. 15 Oregon, No. 23 UCLA, plus Penn State (Oct. 17) and Michigan State (Nov. 7) at home.
Hank Brown's 16-yard TD pass to Reece Vander Zee on the final snap gave Iowa a 20-19 win at Michigan Stadium, dropping Michigan to 3-1 overall and 0-1 in the Big Ten.
Iowa defeated Michigan 20-19 at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, winning on Hank Brown's 16-yard touchdown pass to Reece Vander Zee on the final play of the game. The Hawkeyes improved to 4-0 with the road victory, while the Wolverines fell to 3-1 overall and 0-1 in Big Ten play.
The loss put a hard number on Michigan's postseason outlook. ESPN's Football Power Index gave the Wolverines a 6.2 percent chance of reaching the College Football Playoff after the defeat. The same model lists Michigan below 1 percent to win the Big Ten and below 1 percent to win the national title.
The polls captured the damage within a day. Michigan entered the weekend ranked No. 18 in the AP Top 25 and fell out of the poll entirely when the new edition was released Sunday. The drop from ranked to unranked came in one weekend, on the program's home field. The Wolverines fared slightly better in the Coaches Poll, where they held at No. 24.
Iowa moved the other way, climbing to No. 14 in the new AP poll. The makeup of the result also works against Michigan, since the playoff committee weighs the quality of a team's losses, and a one-point home defeat decided on the game's last snap does not count as a strong one.
Michigan's margins had been thin since the opening week of the season. The Wolverines needed a narrow finish to get past Western Michigan of the Mid-American Conference, winning that game 13-12, and ESPN's model would read worse for the team today had that one-point result gone the other way. That close call against a MAC opponent now sits on the resume alongside Saturday's defeat.
Reaction outside the program came quickly. Barstool founder Dave Portnoy was among the critics, publicly condemning the team's collapse shortly after the final whistle.
The schedule ahead offers little room. Four ranked opponents remain on Michigan's slate — No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Indiana, No. 15 Oregon and No. 23 UCLA — and every one of them sits in the polls while the Wolverines do not. Given that stretch, the Iowa defeat may not be Michigan's last loss of the season.
For viewers mapping the rest of the fall, two home dates stand out in Ann Arbor. Penn State visits Michigan Stadium on Oct. 17, and Michigan State arrives on Nov. 7. Those games, along with the run of ranked opponents, will help determine whether Michigan's playoff hopes survive into the season's final month.
The path forward is narrow. Michigan would likely need to win every remaining game and receive help from other results to stay in contention, and another loss would push its chances close to zero. Continued stumbles would also move the conversation beyond the postseason race and toward the state of the program itself.
Games to watch
