Padres Lock Up Home Field, Host Cubs Tuesday in NL Wild Card Rematch

San Diego wrapped up home-field advantage with a win over Arizona and opens the NL Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park on Tuesday.

The San Diego Padres clinched home-field advantage in the National League Wild Card Series by beating the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday night. They will host the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park on Tuesday in a rematch of last year's Wild Card matchup, with the venue flipping from Wrigley Field to San Diego.

Recent history suggests the change of scenery matters. The Padres went 3-1 in four home playoff games in 2024 and are 6-2 in postseason games at their own ballpark since 2022.

At catcher, a position-by-position breakdown published by Yahoo Sports gives San Diego the edge. Luis Campusano hit .268/.363/.437 in a breakout season, topping Chicago's Carson Kelly at .258/.336/.376. With ABS challenges making framing less valuable, the analysis points to throwing and blocking, where Campusano rated +2 to Kelly's 0 after both posted 0 Catching Runs overall. The Padres will carry Campusano, Freddy Fermin and Ethan Salas, while the Cubs roster Miguel Amaya and Kelly.

First base also leans toward the Padres. Ty France turned in the best season of his career with 21 home runs, a .296/.360/.505 slash line, an .865 OPS, 4.5 WAR and +7 Outs Above Average on defense. He enters the playoffs cold, batting .185 over his last seven games after posting a .317/.364/.450 line in the 15 before that. Chicago's Michael Busch has comparable power with 20 homers and +4 OAA, but his .243 average and 107 OPS+ trail France's 140 OPS+.

Second base is one of two positions where the breakdown favors Chicago. Jake Cronenworth has had a rough year at .224/.303/.318 with a 75 OPS+, a season disrupted by multiple concussions, though he was just named NL Player of the Week after hitting .333 with an .888 OPS over his last 15 games. Nico Hoerner has also scuffled at .264 with an 85 OPS+, but his +9 OAA at the position against Cronenworth's -1 tips the scale.

The shortstop call narrowly goes to Xander Bogaerts. His .230 average and .329 on-base percentage beat Dansby Swanson's .214/.297/.400 line, even though Swanson's +16 OAA far outshines Bogaerts' +3 with the glove. Bogaerts is also the hotter hitter, batting .346/.443/.577 over his last 15 games while Swanson has managed .170/.304/.319.

Third base is Chicago's clearest advantage. Manny Machado reached 30 home runs for the eighth time in his career and grades out slightly better on defense, +10 OAA to Alex Bregman's +9, but he is hitting just .215. Bregman has compiled 5.4 WAR in his first season with the Cubs, slashing .291/.372/.590 with 17 home runs since the All-Star break, the sixth-most in MLB, and he added a three-homer game at Wrigley Field on Monday.

The outfield spot goes to San Diego's Dustin Harris, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. Tallying the six positions laid out, the breakdown awards the Padres catcher, first base, shortstop and the outfield, with the Cubs taking second and third.

The series gets underway Tuesday, September 29, when the Cubs visit the Padres at Petco Park. The game is scheduled for 12:00 AM EDT, with coverage on NBC, NBCSN and Universo.