Expected Goals Paint a Different Picture of the Early Premier League Table
The short version
- Arsenal lead the Premier League in xG difference despite losing heavily at Brighton
- Brighton have the league's best attack, scoring 15 non-penalty goals from 10.7 xG
- Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle have the weakest underlying numbers so far
- Coventry, Sunderland, Forest and Tottenham are each three goals short of their xG
- Promoted sides Hull and Ipswich have made solid starts
Arsenal, Brighton and Brentford rate highly by xG, while Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle have the weakest underlying numbers after five matches.
Early-season standings in the Premier League can mislead. A year ago at this point Liverpool sat first with a perfect record and Tottenham occupied third, yet those clubs ended the campaign in fifth and 17th. Expected goals, which measures the quality of chances created and conceded, offers a fuller view of how teams have actually played once finishing, goalkeeping and fortune are set aside.
By xG difference, Arsenal top the league despite a heavy loss at Brighton last weekend, with leaders Manchester City close behind. Unbeaten Brentford's strong opening is backed up by the numbers, and Manchester United, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have all performed better than their table positions indicate. Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle sit at the bottom of the underlying metrics, with Newcastle's standing in the top half making their numbers the biggest surprise.
Going forward, Brighton lead the division in chance creation, ahead of Manchester City, Brentford and Manchester United, while eight sides rank above Arsenal, with Liverpool and Chelsea in mid-table. Brighton have converted their opportunities efficiently, scoring 15 non-penalty goals against an xG of 10.7. Newcastle have been even more clinical, finding the net nine times from just 4.5 xG, the lowest figure in the league.
Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have each scored three fewer goals than their chances warranted across the opening five fixtures. At the other end, Arsenal still own the division's strongest defense even accounting for the Brighton defeat. Oliver Glasner's Forest and Andoni Iraola's Liverpool have built solid defensive bases, whereas Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have been porous, though Xabi Alonso's side's 12 goals conceded overstates the problem. Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton have paid for their attacking output with defensive vulnerability.
The promoted clubs look competitive, with Hull and Ipswich both opening solidly. Everton and Leeds have each conceded three goals fewer than expected, ranking among the league's better defensive units. Five rounds in, the sample remains small, but the underlying data already signals which teams may rise or regress.