Kalshi Odds Make LaFleur Favorite to Be First NFL Coach Fired

The betting market Kalshi gives the Packers head coach a 64% chance of departing Green Bay before Feb. 15, 2027.

Green Bay improved to 1-1 with a comeback victory over the New York Jets on Sunday, yet head coach Matt LaFleur still tops the betting market's hot-seat list. The exchange Kalshi puts his chances of exiting the Packers before Feb. 15, 2027 at 64%, the highest figure for any NFL head coach.

Philadelphia's Nick Sirianni sits just behind at 60%. A three-way tie at 50.0% follows for Washington's Dan Quinn, the Los Angeles Chargers' Jim Harbaugh and the New York Jets' Aaron Glenn.

LaFleur is in his eighth season leading Green Bay and holds the distinction of being the league's longest-tenured head coach without a Super Bowl appearance. His record over the past six postseason games is 1-5, and the team has earned only one playoff victory since 2020.

After the Packers fell apart against Chicago in the 2025 NFC Wild Card round, many fans called for LaFleur's dismissal. New team president Ed Policy instead chose to give him a contract extension.

The coach opened his tenure strongly, going 41-13 across his first three seasons with NFC Championship Game appearances in 2019 and 2020. Since then Green Bay is 39-34-1, has not climbed above the No. 7 playoff seed since 2021, and is currently on a pace that would set league marks for penalties and penalty yards.

Money would not stand in the way of a change, as the franchise holds close to $600 million in cash reserves. Only three men have coached the Packers this century — Mike Sherman (2000-2005), Mike McCarthy (2006-2018) and LaFleur — with Joe Philbin finishing 2018 on an interim basis after McCarthy's firing.