FSU Holds at No. 53 in ESPN SP+ Heading Into Virginia Matchup

Florida State stayed at No. 53 in ESPN SP+ after beating Central Arkansas 34-7, and the model gives Virginia a 65% chance to win Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Florida State stopped a two-game skid on Saturday with a 34-7 victory over the Central Arkansas Bears at Doak Campbell Stadium, a result that brought the Seminoles back to an even record this season. The win set up a Week 5 ACC home game against the Virginia Cavaliers, and ESPN's SP+ model has already weighed in on where the team stands nationally and what the numbers expect from the matchup ahead.

SP+, a rating system created by Bill Connelly in 2008, measures how efficiently college football teams perform once tempo and the quality of their opponents are taken into account. It is built to forecast results rather than tally wins, so a team gains nothing from a victory earned with poor play, and strong performances can still earn credit even when the scoreboard goes against a team.

The latest release keeps Florida State at No. 53 overall on a rating of 5.7, the exact spot the Seminoles occupied a week earlier, before they handled Central Arkansas. In other words, the win did nothing to change the model's overall view of the team. Inside the ACC, they rank seventh.

Six conference programs sit above them. Miami leads the group at No. 4, followed by Pitt at No. 20, Virginia at No. 21, Virginia Tech at No. 28, Duke at No. 34 and Louisville at No. 37, a list that includes this week's opponent.

Offense has been the strongest part of Florida State's team. The unit rates No. 35 nationally with a 32.1 mark, a level comfortably ahead of the Seminoles' other phases, and with a demanding run of conference games still to come, the group will be asked to do the heavy lifting.

Defense is the biggest concern. FSU's 26.5 rating is No. 74 in the country, among the weakest marks in the ACC, with issues both in the secondary and along the defensive line. Reaching the bowl game the Seminoles are chasing will be difficult unless that side of the ball improves.

Special teams rank No. 65 on a rating of 0.1, well behind national leader Ole Miss at 0.5. Florida State's third phase has not delivered a play that swung a game this season, though it has equally steered clear of mistakes that hurt them, leaving the unit essentially neutral in the model's view.

Virginia, Saturday's opponent, lands at No. 21 in the overall rankings. The Cavaliers pair the nation's No. 20 defense, rated 18.1, with a No. 31 offense at 32.4, a profile that rates ahead of Florida State in both categories.

The model's bottom line: Virginia is projected to leave with a 30-24 win on Saturday afternoon at Doak Campbell Stadium, with its probability of victory set at 65%.