ESPN Model Projects Florida State to Finish 6-6 After 1-2 Start

ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Florida State wins in six of its final nine games, enough to reach bowl eligibility at 6-6.

Florida State sits at 1-2 overall and 0-1 in ACC play after losses to SMU and Alabama, leaving nine games on the schedule, seven of them conference matchups. ESPN's Matchup Predictor still sees a route to bowl eligibility for the Seminoles.

If each remaining game goes to the projected favorite, Florida State would finish 6-6. That marks a modest upgrade from ESPN's outlook before the Alabama game, when the same exercise produced a 5-7 projection.

The model heavily favors FSU at home against FCS opponent Central Arkansas on Sept. 26 (99.0%), then lists the Seminoles as slim favorites against Virginia on Oct. 3 (53.2%). Road trips to Louisville (25.9%), Miami (8.3%) and Pitt (26.3%) are projected losses, with the Miami game the lowest win probability left on the schedule.

ESPN projects home wins over Clemson on Oct. 31 (64.8%) and NC State on Nov. 21 (73.1%), plus a road victory at Boston College on Nov. 7 (78.7%). The regular-season finale against Florida in Tallahassee on Nov. 27 leans toward the Gators, with FSU given a 30.5% chance.

Fans can catch the Week 4 matchup against Central Arkansas on Sept. 26 in Tallahassee.